Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season is officially in the books, and it was an incredibly eventful one. The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers didn't get to play because of a COVID-19 outbreak, Cam Newton missed the New England Patriots' bout with the Kansas City Chiefs due to the coronavirus, the Las Vegas Raiders were fined for breaching COVID-19 protocol for what seems like the tenth time and we had our first head coach fired! It's time for us to turn our attention to the next slate of games, however, so let's check out how the lines for Week 5 have moved.
Last Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 5, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have entered this new week, we have seen more line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup.
(Titans-Bills currently not listed at William Hill)
Week 5 line snapshot
| Matchup | Current | Reopen | Look |
|---|---|---|---|
TB at CHI | TB -5.5 | TB -6 | TB-3 |
CIN at BAL | BAL -13.5 | BAL -14 | BAL -13 |
LAR at WAS | LAR -9 | LAR -9.5 | LAR -9.5 |
PHI at PIT | PIT -7 | PIT -7 | PIT -7 |
LVR at KC | KC -12.5 | KC -12 | KC -11.5 |
AZ at NYJ | AZ -6.5 | AZ -7.5 | AZ -8 |
CAR at ATL | ATL -3.5 | ATL -3.5 | ATL -3.5 |
JAX at HOU | HOU -6 | HOU -6.5 | HOU -6.5 |
MIA at SF | SF -8 | SF -8.5 | |
IND at CLE | IND -2.5 | IND PK | IND -2.5 |
NYG at DAL | DAL -9.5 | DAL -9 | DAL -11.5 |
DEN at NE | N/A | NE -11 | |
MIN at SEA | SEA -7 | SEA -7 | SEA -9.5 |
LAC at NO | NO -7.5 | NO -8 | NO -7.5 |
Giants at Cowboys
Current: DAL -9.5 | Reopen: DAL -9 | Lookahead: DAL -11.5
Why it moved: I certainly did not see what occurred in Dallas last Sunday coming, and I'm not sure many people outside of Cleveland could have predicted the outcome either. While the Cleveland Browns entered this matchup over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 2-1 record, those two wins came against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Washington Football Team. Kevin Stefanski and his team shut up the doubters in the most aggressive way, however, with a 49-38 victory over the Cowboys -- in which they outperformed the most explosive offense in the league. Odell Beckham Jr. accounted for 154 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns while the Browns also rushed for a total of 307 yards. Put simply, we are still searching for the "D" in "Big D." Despite this loss, the Cowboys get a nice chance to rebound against the lowly Giants -- who are still searching for their first victory of 2020. That's why the line only fell two points.
Fade the move? In my lookahead piece, I actually urged readers to jump on DAL -11.5. While I'm not as high on the Cowboys as a team due to their performance or lack of performance on Sunday, I still think they can cover 10 points against the Giants. The two NFL teams in New York have recorded exactly 1,112 total yards of offense so far this season -- which is tied for last in the league. Especially considering the fact that the Giants don't have Saquon Barkley, I don't see them exploding for 40-plus points out of nowhere against the Cowboys. Dallas averages 31.5 points per game while the Giants average 11.8.
Buccaneers at Bears
Current: TB -5.5 | Reopen: TB -6 | Lookahead: TB -3
Why it moved: It took a few weeks, but Tom Brady has finally arrived in Tampa. The living legend threw for 369 yards, five touchdowns and one interception last Sunday during the Buccaneers' 38-31 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. All five of those touchdowns went to different receivers, so it's fair to say he is getting comfortable with the new weapons at his disposal. Without a doubt it was the best Brady has looked in a Buccaneers uniform. On the flip side, Nick Foles and the Bears fell flat against Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts, 19-11. I thought inserting Foles into the starting lineup would bode well for the Bears, but their offense was incredibly hard to watch. Additionally, the Buccaneers defense is underrated at this point. They are physical and love to fly around to the ball, so the Bears could be in for another tough matchup.
Fade the move? I tried to tell you all to jump on it at TB -3 last week, but don't worry, I still don't think it's too late to take the Bucs. I would guess this line increases to TB -6 or even TB -7. Don't fade it.
Cardinals at Jets
Current: AZ -6.5 | Reopen: AZ -7.5 | Lookahead: AZ -8
Why it moved: The Cardinals lost their second game in a row and this time to a Carolina Panthers team that did not have Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater and Co. racked up 444 yards of total offense and dominated time of possession, as first-year offensive coordinator Joe Brady had his way with Arizona's defense. Kyler Murray passed for a season-high three touchdowns, but for a season-low 133 yards. Now that Kliff Kingsbury has lost a couple of games in a row, the Cardinals' stock is starting to drop a bit.
Fade the move? No, I like this line a lot. The Jets just lost by nine points to a quarterback who was making his very first NFL start and leading a banged-up squad of his own. Even if you don't think the Cardinals are a legitimate contender, they are seven points better than the Jets.
